Mathematical Statistical Model for the Prediction of Solar Radiation in Urcuquí
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55204/trc.v3i2.e203Keywords:
Mathematical model, RNA, direct solar radiation, albedoAbstract
This work focuses on proposing prediction models associated with incident solar radiation on the earth's surface of the Tumbabiro parish in Urcuquí - Imbabura. The methodology is based on obtaining an optimal model where prediction models that respond to different statistical methods are used. The data of the fundamental parameters that arise from solar radiation are obtained from the database provided by the NREL. AR, ARMA, ARMAX and Recurrent Neural Networks-RNN models are used, where a comparison of statistically significant predictive models is carried out, allowing us to observe that, of the former, an ARMAX(1,1) is significant, with an error of 9.87. % ; but, the best forecasts were acquired from the LSTM model with an error of 0.18%.
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